as a developing country reaches the status of industrialized, what happens to the birth rate?

Abstract

The unprecedented wellness and economic crisis developing countries are facing volition beal existing development challenges. While governments have started to respond, their capacity is tightly constrained. OECD governments and the broader international customs need to unlock ambitious support, to prevent the loss of lives, contain the chance of aftershocks, and invest in sustainable recovery. The international response to the COVID-19 should be unprecedented in terms of resources mobilised, scope and ambition. It should lead to a new development model that is conducive to resilience and sustainability.

Developing countries will be hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. They are facing an unprecedented health and economical crisis, with potentially extreme economic, social and sustainable development consequences that may reverse decades of evolution progress and farther jeopardise efforts to achieve the 2030 Calendar for Sustainable Evolution.

• A pregnant increment in infections could rapidly overwhelm already weak health systems.

• In many developing countries, the pandemic comes in addition to pre-existing food or security crises.

• Socio-economic impacts are already being felt and will have long-lasting consequences, mayhap reversing decades of progress in poverty eradication: exports in developing Asia are falling, growth in Africa could exist halved, and an extra 30 million people in Latin America could autumn into poverty.

• Containment measures in developing countries will further touch businesses and households, and could disrupt supply chains, engender a nutrient security crisis, and consequence in increased incidence of gender based violence.

The crisis will aggravate existing development challenges, and while governments have started to respond, their capacity is tightly constrained.

• Many developing countries have been grappling with structural vulnerabilities such every bit persistent social and economic inequalities, conflict and forced deportation, declining trust in government, the impacts of climate change, and environmental fragility.

• Crucially, many lack the resources to scale-up wellness interventions and the fiscal space to implement back up measures and minimise disruptions the manner OECD countries are currently doing. Moreover, containment measures may be difficult to implement and have ripple furnishings in contexts of widespread informality and a lack of safety nets for the majority of households. They may have disproportionate impacts for poor people and socially marginalised and excluded groups.

• Developing countries urgently need support from the international community. They are inbound this crisis with lower fiscal buffers than they had in 2008-09. Twice as many countries have approached the International monetary fund for short-term emergency assistance every bit in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global fiscal crisis.

OECD governments and the broader international customs need to unlock ambitious support to developing countries, to prevent the loss of lives, contain the risk of aftershocks, and invest in their sustainable recovery.

• The international response to COVID-19 should be unprecedented in terms of resource mobilised, scope and appetite. It must preserve hard-won gains in poverty reduction, social inclusion and autonomous governance, and enable a sustainable economic recovery. It should lead to a new evolution model that is conducive to resilience and sustainability.

• Immediate back up to the healthcare sector, its workers, and social infrastructure should become hand-in-manus with efforts to strengthen health systems and expand social protection and health coverage. Back up for the economic recovery is crucial too, as governments need to deploy income-support and stimulus measures to protect jobs and firms.

• Official development help, should, to every extent possible, exist protected and stepped upwardly, while expanding support to global public appurtenances.

• The scope for co-ordinated and equitable debt management efforts and concessional resources should be explored, building on the debt service payment standstill agreed by the G20 Finance Ministers on April fifteen.

• In addition, a global investment attempt for a green and global sustainable recovery is needed, with developed and developing countries meeting in its design.

• A supportive multilateral system is crucial to continue governments accountable and refrain from measures that disrupt flows of goods and services; to foster innovative and coherent responses; and to increase co-ordination in contexts of multiple crises, such as in the Sahel.

• In addressing the immediate impacts of the COVID-19, the role of women in combatting the pandemic needs to exist recognised, as well as the increased risk of gender based violence, including sexual exploitation, abuse and harassment (SEAH).

• Particular attending needs to be placed upfront on ensuring respect for policy coherence. Policies in OECD countries demand to exist designed in a way that avoids negative externalities on developing countries.

Developing countries are facing an unprecedented health crisis, with potentially extreme economic, social and sustainable evolution consequences

The COVID-19 crisis poses a comprehensive claiming to accomplishment of the Sustainable Development Goals, notably in developing countries. The crunch has caused a significant loss of life, disrupted livelihoods, and undermined well being throughout the world. While the COVID-19 disease does non discriminate among rich or poor, its impacts volition exacerbate existing inequalities. This means developing countries volition exist amongst those striking hardest, with the wellness, economic, and social shocks of the crunch adding to existing evolution challenges, including extreme poverty, trigger-happy conflicts, food shortages, and climate-related emergencies. Furthermore, early evidence suggests that the adverse impacts of COVID-19 will not only bear upon developing and least adult countries more harshly; they will besides suffer longer.

Developing countries will exist among those striking hardest past the pandemic, and afflicted through many channels by its fallout. The exact extent of homo losses will depend on the ability to reduce the spread of infection and the effectiveness of health systems. Healthcare systems in many developing countries accept been chronically underfunded, lack chapters, and are continuing to grapple with the legacies of preceding wellness crises, such as the Ebola virus, malaria, HIV, malnutrition, every bit well as challenges related to high levels of air pollution and growing shares of immuno-compromised populations. Admission to protective personal equipment, drugs and medical devices remains a claiming in many countries.

While many countries take adopted exceptional measures to protect their borders from the spread of COVID-19, people continue to be forced to flee from war, conflict and persecution. 84% of refugees live in developing countries, and seven out of the pinnacle x developing countries hosting refugees are considered frail nether the OECD fragility framework (OECD, 2019). In this context, the COVID-nineteen pandemic volition have desperate consequences on forcibly displaced people. The increasing number of measures adopted by states to prevent access of non-nationals to their territory and a focus on decision-making the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, which causes the disease COVID-19) inside countries raise concerns about how asylum seekers and refugees can exercise their rights. Humanitarian needs volition increase every bit a result of COVID-19, and the impact of the crisis is greatest on those furthest behind.

A global health crisis compounded by a major economic and financial crisis will put significant strains on already vulnerable economies and risks reversing progress in living standards. Equally large parts of the population are living barely to a higher place the poverty line, the COVID-xix crisis could not only reduce progress in poverty eradication but really push big numbers back into poverty. Preliminary estimates advise that global poverty may increase past as much as half a billion people, or 8% of the full human population. This would exist the first time that poverty has increased globally in xxx years, since 1990. Moreover, according to the Globe Nutrient Program, 130 more one thousand thousand people could face acute food insecurity as a effect of the economical impact of COVID-19 (GNAFC, 2020).

Global growth, international trade, global value chains, and investment activities volition endure. The combination of these external factors and necessary domestic measures to contain the infection volition have large and lasting socio-economical implications for developing countries. The crisis is expected to cost global value chains most USD 50 billion in exports and atomic number 82 to a reduction in foreign straight investment (FDI) between 30-xl%. Up to 195 million jobs globally could exist lost due the pandemic. Remittances may also fall as migrants see their incomes decline in host countries. Article exporters in Africa and Latin America are already bearing the brunt of dropping oil and metallic prices, and economies in Southeast Asia might feel the worst economic performance in 40 years, as supply bondage have been disrupted, tourism broken downwardly, and demands for regionally produced textiles collapsed.

In the short term, the oncoming shock of the pandemic volition have three prongs: commencement, the straight effects of the disease could be overwhelming in contexts where health systems are already struggling, as is the case in several African countries, where the pace of recorded cases is speedily increasing and may exist underestimated. Second, implementing policy measures to mitigate the risk to health – e.m. closing schools, reducing work – will be more difficult than in avant-garde economies, only besides more costly, for case in terms of lower educational attainment and rising poverty. Third, the freezing of financial and trade flows will affect exports and economical activity directly. Developing economies lack the fiscal infinite to absorber the impact of either. Countries confronted with multiple crises, like in the Sahel, would be the hardest hit (Box ane).

In the medium and long term, the re-shaping of investment, product, and trade may have lasting implications for both advanced and developing countries. The pandemic and the response to the crisis may crusade major changes in supply bondage across the globe, with possible reshoring of certain activities. This could put at risk the economies of developing countries that highly rely on FDI and special economic zones. These economies would demand to have measures to actively mitigate the impact of the pandemic and tackle the risks of premature deindustrialisation, past strengthening regional and continental value chains, as well as domestic industrial capabilities. Strategies are needed to ensure the firsthand response to the crunch goes hand-in-hand with stimulus measures for a sustainable recovery.

Box 1. Africa and the Sahel: A particular concern

The case of Africa, in all its variety, is of particular business concern. According to the WHO, under-resourced national wellness systems lack both the equipment and wellness workers needed to respond to the unfolding public health emergency. Dwelling house to the world's poorest (90% by 2030) and many fragile countries, the continent has far fewer doctors, hospital beds, and ventilators per capita than any other region, non to mention the profound disconnect between metropolitan capitals, intermediary agglomerations, and rural areas, in terms of distribution of health infrastructure. African wellness systems and their chapters suffered from severe cuts in social spending (notably in education and wellness sectors) during the structural adjustment programmes of the 1990s. More recently, Ebola epidemics take also severely affected wellness personnel in the Congo-kinshasa, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

The country of wellness in Africa is further undermined by a shrinking fiscal infinite. Low tax revenues (OECD, 2020a), every bit low equally 5.7% in Nigeria for example, and rising public debt limit the ability to finance electric current and capital expenditures. While the demographic structure, with a median age of nineteen years, might play in favour of the continent in limiting the direct impacts of COVID-19, the very big number of people whose immune systems are weakened past chronic illnesses of nutritional insufficiencies could accelerate the spread of the disease. Moreover, structural weaknesses in public service and infrastructure, equally well as generalised informality may compound the effects of the pandemic. Against this backdrop, it is clear that many African countries volition not accept the means to effectively prepare and respond to the unfolding epidemic. With Africa being the last continent hitting by the wave, and overall reported cases and deaths now to a higher place 25 000 and i 000 respectively (equally per the latest updates on the COVID-19 crisis from Africa CDC consulted on 22 April 2020), the region now risks being de facto "bars" by the rest of the globe. The humanitarian, social, economic, and geopolitical consequences of such a scenario are unimaginable.

In the Sahel and West Africa, COVID-19 is yet another stupor to the system for countries who are already grappling with significant development and humanitarian challenges. These include pervasive poverty, conflict and violence, food insecurity, extreme weather condition events, etc. The region is currently home to both a looming food crisis – 17 one thousand thousand people are expected to be in a crisis state of affairs or worse during the upcoming lean season of June-August 2020 – and increasing political violence as clusters of violence in Libya, Central Sahel and Lake Republic of chad have cost the lives of 92 000 people since 2011. With the spotlight at present on COVID-19, efforts to counter pre-existing crises run the adventure of being neglected. Furthermore, highly dense urban agglomerations with little possibility for social distancing and the dominance of the informal economic system, which depends on face-to-confront contact, pose additional challenges in the efforts to fight the virus. Finally, humanitarian aid to conflict zones and refugee camps is being disrupted also, highlighting the need for innovative modalities for assistance interventions in order to avoid spreading the virus also as the need for humanitarian corridors to reach vulnerable communities.

Focus on Burkina Faso: Disharmonize, displacement and weak health systems

Health facilities and infrastructure have been severely compromised in the Sahel, equally conflict and insecurity accept escalated to unprecedented levels. In Burkina Faso, for instance, 135 health centres are airtight and 140 are operating with reduced services due to the escalation of violence, jeopardising the admission of nearly 1.6 one thousand thousand people to bones healthcare. This context of high levels of deportation, weakened health organization, and escalating violence could seriously touch on detecting and managing the virus and the overall response to the crisis.

Key figures

135 health centres closed and 140 operating with reduced services affecting i.half-dozen million

780 000 displaced persons

26 000 refugees

338 000 students out of school due to insecurity

2 527 schools closed

1.2 one thousand thousand are food insecure

2.two million people require humanitarian assist

Source: UNOCHA (2020), Overview of the humanitarian state of affairs in Burkina Faso, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ 20200313_apercu_de_la_situation_humanitaire_bfa_fr.pdf

A sudden and big increase in COVID-19 cases can overwhelm the healthcare sector, its workers, and primal social infrastructure. Health systems in many developing countries were nether strain before the pandemic, and have no reserve chapters. According to the WHO (2019), 90% of low-income countries suffer from wellness worker shortages. For example, sub-Saharan African countries on average accept 0.ii doctors for 1 000 people, compared with two.2 in Latin America and 3.four in OECD countries. Moreover, developing countries might endure from inadequate access to drugs and medical devices. Safeguard measures to serve domestic markets start exacerbate the vulnerability of those countries relying on imports and with limited local manufacturing capacities. Africa already faces a big trade deficit in medical devices, with imports accounting for 92% of full trade in medical devices in the continent (Figure one). The role of women in this pandemic is a fundamental aspect of the health and social infrastructure. Women are on the frontlines of the COVID-xix response, comprising about seventy% of the global healthcare workforce. At the same time, they are also shouldering much of the brunt of unpaid work and face increased risks of violence or harassment during times of quarantine.

Effigy 1. Share of trade in medical devices by trade flow and category (%), selected geographical regions, 2016-18

Annotation: Medical device classifications and categories are based on Bamber and Gereffi (2013) and Torsekar (2018).

Source: OECD (forthcoming), Production Transformation Policy Review of the Dominican Republic, OECD Evolution Pathways, OECD Publishing, Paris.

The COVID-19 crisis has coincided with a fall in oil prices and subsequent decline in nearly commodity prices, affecting economies that rely on natural resource extraction. By late March, oil prices had fallen below USD 30 per barrel, a drop of a more than 50% since Jan 2020. Acquired by a breakdown of existing price-setting mechanisms, the plummet in prices was exacerbated past the sharp fall in need resulting from the pandemic. Oil prices further declined in April and ventured into negative territory for the start time in history. The International Energy Agency suggests that oil demand will remain negative at least until the second half of 2020. This situation will radically curtail the ability of oil producing countries to answer to the pandemic. In heavily oil-dependent countries, oil exports account for as much as lx% or more of financial revenue – in some cases above xc%.ane These revenues could autumn past as much as 50 to 85% in 2020, compared with 2019. This judge assumes an oil price of USD xxx per barrel – by some estimates, the oil price could fall even farther. Compounding the fiscal constraints, several oil-exporting countries accept higher debt levels than they did ahead of the 2008 financial crunch.

Figure 2. Global prices of cardinal commodities

2005-2019 (base 100 = yr 2005)

Source: Earth Banking company, Commodities Price Data, www.worldbank.org/commodities, downloaded on March 23, 2020.

The closure of borders and solitude measures in most countries has provoked a collapse of travel and tourism that will affect countries across the developing world. Tourism represents 10% of the world's Gdp, 7% of the world's exports, and 30% of the earth's services exports. For many developing economies, it is a major source of foreign exchange and employment. The reduction in international travel and tourism could imply a 45-70% decline in the international tourism economy in 2020 (OECD, 2020b). The consequences for developing countries volition exist large, in particular in small island developing states, where tourism generates betwixt 30% and 40% of GDP.

Moreover, developing countries might also be penalised by a reduction in remittances. Money sent home by the diaspora is an important source of income and foreign exchange in many developing economies. Remittances tend to exist more stable than other financial flows and counter-cyclical, i.e. they increase during economic downturns in the migrant's country of origin. But in the current crunch, this may non exist the example: the global downturn is affecting both countries of origin and of destination, and migrants see their income curtailed past confinement measures in advanced economies. Many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to see those fiscal streams dry out. For instance, remittances to the Dominican Democracy – mostly from the United states of america and Spain – account for viii% of Gdp, twice equally much as FDI, and are probable to be reduced as COVID-nineteen unfolds (OECD, forthcoming). The World Bank (Globe Bank, 2020) estimates remittance could subtract every bit much equally 20% in 2020 due to the economical crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdown.

Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to links betwixt ecology and disease threats. While this pandemic is foremost a wellness and humanitarian crisis with widespread economic and social consequences, its origins link to environmental degradation and the climate emergency. The increasing frequency of affliction outbreaks is linked to climatic change and biodiversity loss, and these interrelated factors have the largest impacts on the nigh vulnerable people. Over-exploitation of nature is a central commuter of emerging infectious disease. Many developing countries are candidates for disease hotspots, and experience rapidly changing interactions betwixt people, animals and ecosystems that outpace workable regulatory mechanisms. Temperature rise will continue to result in biodiversity loss – encroaching farther on wild fauna habitats and bringing animals and human populations closer together. Paired with coastal degradation, rising temparatures volition as well advance the spread of pathogens from land to marine environments and increase disease transmission to humans as well as domestic and wild animals animals. Also, the economical consequences of COVID-19 will impact many ocean-based sectors and small island developing states (SIDS); tourism, a cardinal ocean-based sector for many developing countries, is expected to be ane of the most affected sectors globally by the COVID-nineteen pandemics, with large economic repercussions on the countries that strongly rely on it for foreign exchange, jobs, and income.

The crisis will aggravate existing evolution challenges. While governments have started to answer, their capacity is tightly constrained

Governments in developing countries need to take swift action to counter the infection and its socio-economic consequences, but pre-existing structural challenges hazard hampering the crisis response, both in the short and long term. Informal settlements in urban areas across developing countries brand social distancing and confinement measures specially hard to implement. High levels of informality in the labour market hinder the impact of social protection packages and subsidies for workers, as well as targeted measures for small and medium-sized enterprises. The fiscal response in developing countries volition have to accept into account their specific context and institutional capacities.

Besides, institutional and fiscal capacities vary enormously across regions and countries. At a macro level, developing countries face a express fiscal space as they oft rely on a narrow public revenue base and their vulnerability increases with commodity prices declining and global value bondage coming to a halt. Unlike the 2008-09 global financial crisis, many developing countries are inbound this pandemic with no or very limited fiscal buffers. Failing exports and tourism equally well as capital outflows are depressing tax revenue and aggravating sovereign debt levels – in plough limiting room for manoeuvre. According to the International monetary fund, upper-case letter outflows from emerging market economies reached USD 83 billion in March 2020. Morever, every bit investors move to safer assets, emerging and developing economies' currencies get-go to depreciate – in some case by as much as 25%.

Regional policy responses

Several African governments and development partners are taking activity to mitigate the economical impact (OECD, 2020c). The African Union (AU) and its Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) are leading the continental response to COVID-nineteen. They convened a coming together of African Health Ministers equally early as 22 Feb 2020, prepare upwardly an Africa Taskforce for Coronavirus (AFCOR), developed a Joint Continental Strategy for COVID-nineteen Outbreak and established a Continental Anti-COVID-19 Fund endowed with USD 12.5 1000000 equally seed funding for AU Member States to contribute. Four Special Envoys were appointed to mobilise international economic support for continental fight against COVID-19. The AU Evolution Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) released a white newspaper to emphasise the touch on of the many "known unknowns" of the pandemic. Regional organisations and sub-regional entities, such equally ECOWAS and UEMOA, are providing strategic plans, co-ordination platforms, and watch committees to their respective member states. Well-nigh African governments accept adopted prevention and containment responses to curb the spread of the virus. Mostly, these prevention measures and lockdowns nowadays challenges in a context where one-third of Westward Africans take no handwashing facility at habitation and upwards to 85.8% of people across the continent depend on informal labour requiring daily face up-to-confront interactions.

In order to mobilise health resource and minimise the social and economic impact of COVID-19, financial institutions are organising assertive responses. The African Development Banking company with a USD 3 billion "Fight COVID-xix" Social Bond and a USD 10 billion Response Facility; or the Central Bank of Westward African States and the W African Development Bank with provisions for their economies to best face the outbreak. After Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged G20 countries to provide a USD 150 billion financing package, African Finance Ministers co-ordinated to telephone call for an firsthand emergency economical stimulus to the melody of USD 100 billion. This includes the waiver of all involvement payments on public debt and on sovereign bonds, estimated at USD 44 billion for 2020, and the possible extension of the waiver to the medium term, which would provide immediate fiscal space and liquidity to governments during the crisis. Countries are seeking debt relief and emergency financing. Kenya is in talks with the World Banking company for budget support of USD 750 meg and the Imf for USD 350 million in emergency assistance. The Imf approved the showtime COVID-19 emergency funding for an African state, with a USD 109.4 million disbursement planned to help Rwanda. On xiii April 2020, the Imf approved immediate debt relief for 25 poor countries, 11 of which are West African countries, over the post-obit six months to enable them channel more resources in the fight against COVID-xix. Similarly, the Paris Lodge and the G20 Finance Ministers agreed on a fourth dimension-bound break of debt service payments for the 76 International Development Association (IDA) countries, plus Republic of angola. Half of the beneficiary countries are on the continent, including all 17 of the Sahel and Due west African countries.

In Latin America, countries must accept urgent measures to support non simply the poor, but also all vulnerable individuals, households and firms, including internally dispaced people. Several countries in the region have announced monetary and fiscal measures (OECD, 2020d) For example, central banks in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay and Republic of peru, have reduced interest rates or adopted liquidity measures to promote domestic demand and facilitate business organisation. However, the exchange charge per unit laissez passer-through to aggrandizement means these can only be temporary and express. Fiscal intermediaries have postponed credit payments for the most vulnerable firms and households. On the financial front, most countries in the region, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Republic of costa rica, the Dominican Commonwealth, El Salvador, Paraguay, and Peru, have appear measures to support businesses and households with cash flow. Measures include the deferral or temporary reduction of certain tax payments, as well every bit temporary payment cancellations for selected public utilities, the interruption of social security contributions, or support to partially cover payrolls costs for micro, small and medium enterprises.

Most Asian emerging economies take some room for active monetary and fiscal policies, but need to cope with disruptions in global value chains and risks for the financial sector (OECD, 2020e). Most Southeast Asian countries have eased their monetary policy stance. Some government intervened multiple times inside the space of 1 month. Reductions of policy rates occurred in the People'southward Republic of Communist china ("China"), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The reserve requirements applicative to the cyberbanking sector were reduced in China, Republic of indonesia, and Malaysia, while Philippine policy makers decided to relax some of the regulatory and reporting rules applicable to banks. Other measures include purchases of regime bonds (Indonesia), loan maturity conversions (Malaysia), direct provision of credit (Prc), open marketplace operations (India and Indonesia), as well every bit temporary suspensions of loan chief/involvement repayments (Malaysia). In improver, several Asian countries unveiled comprehensive fiscal stimulus packages aimed at supporting businesses and households. Although they differ by country, packages typically include financial subsidies, revenue enhancement deferral and exemption, as well equally increases in direct spending. Overall, the limerick, the timing, and the targeting of stimulus packages will be crucial to bring about the desired growth-lifting effect. In the S Pacific, COVID-19 cases take only recently begun to escalate merely are multiplying apace. In improver to the economic risks from a reduction of tourism, the overall combination of weak health systems, reduction in worker mobility and remittances flows, significant job losses and the plummet of article prices exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. For many Pacific countries reliant on food imports from the broader region, trade restrictions are having pregnant furnishings.

OECD governments and the broader international community need to unlock ambitious back up to developing countries to prevent the loss of lives, comprise the adventure of aftershocks, and invest in their sustainable recovery

This is an unprecedented global evolution crisis. It affects how we produce, swallow, work and alive and has massive repercussions on present and future generations. It affects every country and individual in the world, but not anybody is equally affected or prepared. Every bit such, the crunch requires an unprecedented global response in size, range and ambition. The international community – including multilateral organisations and international financial institutions, the G7 and G20 group of countries, philanthropic organisations, the international private sector and NGOs – can and should reinvigorate co-performance and prefer a bold, innovative and inclusive multilateral approach to mobilise financing, technology, and expertise across the policy spectrum to overcome the crunch, uphold and realise the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development every bit well as climate targets, and ensure that no 1 is left behind. It needs to support developing countries as they tackle the consequences of the pandemic and avoid the erosion of years of progress in poverty reduction.

This ambitious global response must provide sufficient support and financing, through all forms of development finance, not just to fight the disease and mitigate the short term impacts, just also to invest in a durable and sustainable recovery. Efforts to reduce the costs of transferring remittances, promote high quality investment in developing regions, fight illicit financial flows, tackle base erosion and turn a profit shifting (BEPS), and promote fairer international taxation must continue and address the new challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. In the surface area of official development assistance (ODA), OECD countries should, to every extent possible, protect and stride upwardly their commitments to developing countries. Equally the pandemic evolves, ODA should exist used to answer to immediate needs in the area of health (Box two) and across, and to strengthen support of the multilateral system, in co-ordination with national, local and civil society partners. In the medium to longer term, ODA can back up the mobilisation of resource from other actors, including the individual sector, such as through composite finance. Development partners should ensure a coherent and co-ordinated humanitarian-development-peace approach. Interventions designed specifically to support the COVID-19 response should follow effectiveness principles and information-sharing practices. Articulation assay, implementation and results evaluation of previous and current pandemic responses are critical to ensure results on the ground and positive outcomes in the medium and long-term.

Box ii. Concessional finance for health

Concessional finance for health has evolved significantly in the past decade (Effigy 3). Every bit the disease burden shifts from catching to non-infectious disease, donors that historically focused on specific diseases or populations (maternal health, children, transmissible diseases such equally HIV/AIDS and TB) have too increased their financing to health systems in general. Financing for epidemic preparedness has been an important domain of innovation since the Ebola crisis in 2014-15, merely it remains under-funded (CEPI, 2017): the WHO Contingency Fund for Emergencies, its Health Emergencies and Health Systems Preparedness Programmes faced chronic upkeep shortfalls, while the World Banking concern Pandemics Emergency Fund was insufficient to confront global calibration pandemics. Because of insufficient domestic resource mobilisation and external back up, African countries' preparedness, as assessed past a variety of indices, is the lowest of any region. However, there has been some progress: the establishment of the African CDC, based in Addis-Ababa, has immune to plan and prepare, too equally distribute cardinal equipment to the region.

Figure 3. Total concessional finance to health

USD billion, 2017 prices and exchange rates, gross disbursements

Source: OECD, Distribution of net ODA (indicator), doi: 10.1787/2334182b-en (accessed on half dozen Apr 2020).

Overall, ODA budgets have proven resilient in the face up of recession, increasing in 2009 and 2010 despite the global financial crisis in 2008. Trends of official evolution finance to developing countries during major pandemics or epidemics (specifically, HIV/AIDS, H1N1 swine flu, and Ebola), show that these investments were not to the detriment of other health finance (Figure 4). Total disbursements for infectious diseases (including malaria and TB) increased by most 50% between 2014 and 2017 during the Ebola crunch.

Effigy 4. Official development finance to health, of which HIV/AIDS, Ebola, H1N1, tuberculosis and malaria

USD commitments, 2017 prices, DAC and multilateral agencies' outflows

Source: Authors' calculations based on OECD, Creditor Reporting System (database), https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CRS1

Confronted with the unprecedented situation, G20 leaders have signalled their willingness to exercise "any it takes" to fight the crunch. They stated "consolidating Africa'south health defence is a key for the resilience of global wellness", expressing their concern for the touch on on developing countries and their readiness to mobilise development finance. G20 Finance Ministers and Fundamental Banking company Governors released a G20 Action Plan – Supporting the Global Economic system Through the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Action Plan sets out principles and actionable commitments covering firsthand measures (economic, fiscal and wellness), actions to accomplish a robust and sustained global economic recovery, and international support to countries in demand and preparedness for hereafter crunch. It includes a Debt Service Break Initiative for Poorest Countries with a suspension of primary repayments and involvement payments will terminal until end-2020. The G20's action has focused on recommendations to international financial institutions and multilateral development banks, who have announced emergency support to developing countries and chosen for swift action past bilateral donors to defer debt payments. International action could be broadened to incldue a holistic approach of international support that looks at all sources of finance, including from the private sector, highlights principles of development cooperation such every bit effectiveness and buying, and encourages modalities such as due south-south and triangular cooperation.

As of early April 2020, more than 90 countries had approached the IMF for short-term emergency assistance, twice as many as in the firsthand aftermath of the 2008 global fiscal crunch. The IMF is replenishing the Ending Containment and Relief Trust to aid the poorest countries and stands ready to deploy all of its USD 1 trillion lending capacity. The Fund estimates that its current lending capacity will not be plenty to address the demands from emerging markets and developing countries, every bit they will need at least USD two.5 trillion in fiscal resources to get through the crunch created past the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Bank approved a first set of emergency back up operations for developing countries, using a dedicated, fast-track facility for COVID-19 response.2 Overall, the World Depository financial institution Grouping is prepared to deploy up to USD 160 billion over the next 15 months to help countries answer to immediate health consequences of the pandemic and bolster the economical recovery. In a statement released on nine April, the Evolution Assistance Committee pledged to "strive to protect ODA budgets, encourage other financial flows to support governments and communities in partner countries".

The international community can provide invaluable back up to developing countries as they answer to the shock and accost its immediate, curt-term, and medium to long-term effects. Acting together on the priority areas gear up out beneath will allow OECD governments, developing and emerging economies and the broader international community to reinvigorate multilateral co-operation, build resilience, and non only put the global economy back on rail, but rebuild better economies and societies to achieve the 2030 Calendar for Sustainable Development. Concluding only not least, all policies and measures to address the crisis, demand to respect and uphold human rights, the rule of law, gender equality, non-bigotry, decent work weather condition and humanitarian principles. Equally, they must not engage in measures that result in shrinking civic infinite.

one. Back up the healthcare sector and its workers in developing countries

Immediate needs

• Assist countries facing difficulties in meeting their external financing needs through international financial institutions, ensuring that financing delivered is transparent and answerable.

• Provide humanitarian and emergency help to enhance access to medical supplies, protective habiliment, h2o, and to back up displaced persons and refugee settlements through existing institutional arrangements and in line with regional strategies, such as the response program prepared past the Africa CDC or the efforts put in place by the West Africa Health Organisation (WAHO) in training healthcare workers and distributing protective equipment and medicine.

• Reinforce the co-ordination of the peace, humanitarian, and development response to support the most vulnerable, especially in the context of multiple crises, such equally in the Sahel.

• Share skillful practices on effective advice about hygiene and public health, tackling misinformation and collecting relevant data to fight the pandemic.

Short and medium-term needs

• Support the mobilisation of financial resources for wellness systems and the expansion of health and social protection coverage.

• Back up human resource development and tackle shortages in the wellness sector, also through the WHO Global Code of Do on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel.

• Invest in health information systems to rails the evolution of the pandemics, its impacts and the effectiveness of policy responses.

• Back up inclusive and accountable institutions that respect human rights and support democratic governance.

2. Support the social and economical recovery in developing countries

Immediate needs

• Support developing countries to overcome the macroeconomic shock and possible external debt overhang, through a coherent strategy to evolution finance – from official flows, to remittances, taxes, and investment – and sovereign debt restructuring and relief, as advisable.

• Maintain and where possible increase commitments to financing for sustainable development, including offical development assistance, equally well as other official support and mechanisms such as South-South and triangular co-operation, then that governments can provide income-support and other measures to the most vulnerable, minimise the affect of school closures, and address food security risks.

• Recognise the role of women in confronting the pandemic and the increased risk of SEAH, also every bit the needs of vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, people with disabilities, people living with HIV, migrants, refugees, and forcibly displaced people; help protect denizen rights and freedoms.

• Ensure that all policies and measures taken to address the crisis respect and uphold man rights, the rule of law, gender equality, not-bigotry, decent work conditions, as well as humanitarian principles; protect the civic infinite and prevent autonomous backsliding.

Short and medium-term needs

• Ensure policy coherence of measures taken to fight the crisis, avoiding negative externalities on developing countries or addressing them through advisable action.

• Assistance developing countries preserve critical productive capacities, deepen regional integration, and develop local and regional value-chains.

• Conceive fiscal stimulus and public investment measures as a global public investment in the 2030 Agenda and climate agendas, and ensure developing countries are part and parcel of designing and benefitting from a global sustainable recovery.

three. Uphold a supportive multilateral organisation

Success will critically depend on a supportive multilateral system ensuring an effective governance of global flows, delivering essential global public appurtenances, and putting the global economy on track to reach the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The Sustainable Development Goals already provide a vision and a framework for a more than prosperous, inclusive, resilient and sustainable world. The challenge now is to sustain and advance efforts to achieve this vision. To this effect:

• Reinvigorate multilateral co-operation in support of the Sustainable Development Goals. The full implementation of the 2030 Agenda, including climate objectives, remain crucial elements in helping ameliorate equip the world for hereafter systemic shocks. International focus on biodiversity, forest conservation, protection and sustainable utilise of natural resource and climate change are central, given the zoonotic and ecological implications of this crisis.

• Maintain a rules-based, open multilateral system that ensures the smooth menstruum of appurtenances and services, including medical supplies and drugs to developing countries, to maintain admission and avert the proliferation of counterfeits.

• Revisit innovative efforts to protect health every bit a global public skillful and to develop and promote access to vaccines in developing countries, such as through the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, GAVI, and the UHC2030 initiative and the Global Health Security Agenda.

• Uphold respective commitments to accost international migration and forced displacement, such as the Global Compact on Migration and the Global Compact on Refugees, to minimise the negative touch on of the crisis on refugees, migrants and their families.

• The international community, with back up from relevant international organsiations, could consider convening an international conference for adult and developing countries, public and private actors to discuss the actions required to offset the affect of the crunch on poverty and promote a global investment plan for a truly sustainable recovery.

References

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CEPI (Heart for Epidemics Preparedness Innovation) (2017), "Financing of international collective activity for epidemic and pandemic preparedness", The Lancet.

GNAFC (2020), Global Written report on Food Crises, Global Network Confronting Food Crises & Nutrient Security Information Network, FSIN. https://www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resource/files/GRFC_2020_ONLINE_200420.pdf

IEA (2020), "Energy Market place Turmoil Deepens Challenges for Many Major Oil and Gas Exporters", https://www.iea.org/manufactures/energy-market place-turmoil-deepens-challenges-for-many-major-oil-and-gas-exporters?

IMF (2020), Moreno, M. and Paolo Dudine, New Data on World Debt: A Dive into Country Numbers, https://blogs.imf.org/2019/12/17/new-data-on-globe-debt-a-dive-into-country-numbers/

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OECD (2020a), Revenue statistics in Africa, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/taxation/acquirement-statistics-in-africa_2617653x.

OECD (2020b), Tackling Coronavirus (COVID-nineteen): Tourism Policy Responses, https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=124_124984-7uf8nm95se&Championship=Covid-19:%20Tourism%20Policy%20Responses

OECD (2020c), COVID-19 in Africa: Regional socio-economical implications and policy priorities, http://world wide web.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/

OECD (2020d), COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean: Regional socio-economical implications and policy priorities, https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=129_129904-k3xp17fqbl&title=COVID-xix-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean-Regional-socio-economic-implications-and-policy-priorities

OECD (2020e), COVID-19 in Emerging Asia: Regional socio-economic implications and policy priorities, https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=129_129904-k3xp17fqbl&title=COVID-nineteen-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean-Regional-socio-economic-implications-and-policy-priorities

OECD (forthcoming), Production Transformation Policy Review of the Dominican Commonwealth: Capturing the Gains of Growth, OECD Development Pathways, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sumner, A.C. Hoy and E. Ortiz-Juarez (2020), "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty", WIDER Working Paper 2020/43, https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2020-43.pdf

Torsekar, Thousand. (2018), "China'south Changing Medical Device Exports", Journal of International Commerce and Economic science, January, https://www.usitc.gov/journals.

UNOCHA (2020), Overview of the humanitarian situation in Burkina Faso, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resource/20200313_apercu_de_la_situation_humanitaire_bfa_fr.pdf

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World Bank (2020), COVID-19 Crunch through a Migration Lens, Migration and Development Brief 32, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/989721587512418006/pdf/COVID-19-Crisis-Through-a-Migration-Lens.pdf

Notes

← 1. This is the case of countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

← 2. The first group of projects, amounting to USD 1.9 billion, will assist 25 countries, and new operations are moving forwards in over forty countries using the fast-track process. In addition, resource worth up to USD 1.seven billion for existing projects volition be redeployed to back up the response to the crunch.

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Source: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/developing-countries-and-development-co-operation-what-is-at-stake-50e97915/